Analysts said they expect a tough fight for the Syrian city — do not see imminent collapse
Daesh leaders “are beginning the process of leaving Raqqa and moving their operations farther downriver,” said Navy Capt. Jeff Davis, a Pentagon spokesman. He said an unspecified number of Daesh “bureaucrats” are heading east along the north bank of the Euphrates River toward Deir Al Zor, because they see “the end is near in Raqqa.
“We are seeing now an exodus of their leadership,” Davis said, adding: “This seems to be a very organised, orderly withdrawal of a lot of their non-combatant support people.”
Davis did not predict an imminent collapse of the militant group, and analysts said they expect a tough fight for the Syrian city.
The US-led coalition has been pounding the Raqqa area regularly for months. On Thursday it conducted 17 strikes near the city, targeting two Daesh military staging areas and a Daesh combat unit, according to the US Central Command’s daily air strike tally.
It said the attacks destroyed four tunnels, three fighting positions, three Daesh-held buildings, two weapons storage areas, two Daesh headquarters, a bridge and other targets. The coalition also launched 11 air strikes near Deir Al Zor, destroying 20 oil tanker trucks, six oil wellheads, two artillery systems, an oil storage tank and a crane.
“Daesh is going to have to think hard about where they go next. Do they have any place to go?” said Christine Wormuth, the Pentagon’s top policy official from 2014 to 2016. Wormuth, now a senior adviser at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington think tank, said she expected some fighters would stay in Raqqa and fight.
“The whole point of the isolate mission is to try to squeeze them and get them to leave and flush them out into the open,” she said.
President Barack Obama’s strategy was to recruit, organise and enable local Syrian Kurdish and Arab fighters to retake Raqqa, rather than put American combat forces in the lead. The Trump administration is now re-evaluating that approach and considering options that could include a more direct US combat role.
At his confirmation hearing a month ago, Defence Secretary Jim Mattis said the US approach should be reviewed and “perhaps energised on a more aggressive timeline.” He has not said what changes he would recommend.
Last week, the top US commander for the counter-Daesh campaign in Iraq and Syria, Lt. Gen. Stephen Townsend, said forces leading the fights for Raqqa and the northern Iraqi city of Mosul should prevail within the next six months.
A major complication in the current strategy is Turkey’s strong objections to a Syrian Kurd role in the Raqqa campaign. The Turkish government views the US-backed Syrian Kurdish fighters as terrorists and a threat to Turkey. The US sees them as the most effective and reliable element among local fighters supported by the Pentagon.