The rise in the exchange rate of the dollar, which has rallied in recent days, is ongoing. It is known that political reasons remain in the background of this rise. The last apparent reason is that Pastor Brunson was put under house arrest for cooperation with terrorist organizations.
By: Ahmet Ulusoy*
Following this decision, the news that the assets of the justice and internal affairs ministers (Gül and Soylu) in the U.S. have been frozen and that there will be more sanctions to follow has triggered the fast rise in the exchange rate of the dollar.
As it is known, however, when Pastor Brunson was arrested, both the minister of internal affairs and the minister of justice were different people. That is to say, this suggests that there are other reasons than the arrest of Pastor Brunson beyond the fact that the two ministers in question are put in front of the public by means of the statement that their assets are frozen.
The arrest of Pastor Brunson is the last straw for the U.S.’s sanctions decision. Even if Brunson had been released the aggressive stance of the U.S. and its desire to impose sanctions would continue.
The reason of Dollar dancing is quite simple…
Turkey has gone too far.
First of all, it has gone too far due to establishing close relations with Russia, China and Iran.
It has gone too far since it decided to buy the S-400 missiles.
At this point, I think that those who criticized that “we produce nothing” are really unfair to industrialists.
If Turkey’s export figures are about 157 billion dollars, it is due to domestic products.
One can criticize that “Turkey cannot keep up with its counterparts (such as Korea) regarding the production of advanced technology products. This structure has prevented higher growth rates.” But criticism that “Turkey produces nothing” is really an unfair accusation against industrialist swho both meet our needs and sell their products all over the world; that is simply a denial of their labor and self-sacrifice.
The exchange rate issue is now more than an economic outcome.
Politics have taken precedence over the economy.
The market economy and rules, which have been blessed for the past 50 years, are now being destroyed by Trump.
Today, we are witnessing a U.S. government that bullies any country as it desires, and does that for monetary gains (trade wars), playing a dangerous game.
At some point in time, the world will face a government style which threatens and bullies anything ut, imposes sanctions on Russia, fights with North Korea and Iran, declares trade wars against China and EU, and aims n imbalanced foreign policy as balance.
The world faces the risk of becoming ruled by an administration that once threatened the Saudis to obtain gains, sanctioned Russia, rowed with North Korea and
Iran and started a trade war with China and the EU, which aims for a volatile foreign policy to become the new balance.
Admittedly, Turkey is also, most severely, on top of the list of countries exposed to this aggressive political understanding, both in terms of political and economic relations.
What to do with this Dollar crisis?
The Central Bank and other economic institutions are on red alert. If there is not enough water to extinguish the fire (foreign exchange reserves), then it is necessary to wait a bit, but to prevent the spreading of the fire in the meanwhile.
With this understanding, institutions and market actors should stay calm, refrain from vain attempts, and wait for the market to stabilize.
Economy is the management of expectations.
Government and state institutions might have also their duties to boost our confidence.
After all, we all live in this country. The interests of the country are for us, but so are the damages. The way out is that every individual of this nation performs their task at world standards.
We must pay attention to our social, economic and human behaviors with the consciousness that we have no other country to live in.
*Ahmet Ulusoy: Turkish economic expert and a former member of the Turkish parliament and a leading figure of the ruling Justice and Development (AK Party) in Turkey. (Published in Yeni Şafak Turkish newspaper on 10 August, 2018)